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Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-10-11 10:32:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 110832 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Pamela Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 300 AM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 The tropical storm has been relatively steady in strength during the past several hours. A large area of deep convection continues, but the center is located near the northern edge of the thunderstorms due to northerly shear. An ASCAT-A pass from several hours ago showed maximum winds in the 40-45 kt range in the northeastern quadrant, and all of the latest Dvorak estimates are 3.0/45 kt. Based on this satellite data, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt. Pamela is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt, and a west-northwest to northwest motion should continue for about another 12 hours as the storm moves in the flow on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge. By tonight and early Tuesday, Pamela should reach the western periphery of the ridge, which should cause a turn toward the north. A faster motion to the northeast is expected beginning Tuesday night when the storm becomes embedded in the flow on the southeast side of a broad mid- to upper-level trough, and that should bring the cyclone inland over west-central Mexico on Wednesday. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the right of the previous one, to be in better agreement with the latest consensus aids. Pamela has been gradually strengthening despite moderate northerly shear. The upper-level pattern is expected to become more favorable for the storm later today. These favorable winds aloft combined with warm SSTs and a moist environment should promote steady to rapid strengthening until Pamela reaches the coast of Mexico. The NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the model guidance and continues to show Pamela becoming a dangerous major hurricane prior to landfall. After Pamela moves inland, rapid weakening is expected as the storm moves over the rugged terrain of west-central Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Pamela is forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast of west-central mainland Mexico on Wednesday, and it could bring life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds to a portion of that area. Residents in this area should monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. Hurricane watches will likely be required later this morning. 2. Pamela is expected to pass near or south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula as a hurricane Tuesday night or early Wednesday, and could bring strong winds to the extreme southern portion of the peninsula. Watches could be required for portions of this area later today. 3. Heavy rains associated with Pamela are expected to move over the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durgano along with southern portions of Baja California Sur Tuesday and Wednesday. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 16.2N 107.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 16.9N 108.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 18.2N 109.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 19.9N 109.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 21.8N 108.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 13/1800Z 24.2N 106.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 14/0600Z 26.9N 103.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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