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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-09-08 16:33:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 08 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 081433 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 08 2020 Paulette's organization has noticeably improved since last night. The tropical storm is still sheared, with its outflow restricted to the southwest, however overnight AMSU imagery indicated that convection was beginning to wrap around the western portion of its circulation. The intensity estimate has been increased to 55 kt based on Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Paulette has manged to strengthen despite the shear, and some additional short-term strengthening is certainly possible. It is not out of the question that Paulette could become a hurricane, at least briefly. The global models indicate that the shear will increase on Wednesday, which should cause Paulette's intensity to level off, and more likely, decrease. The NHC intensity forecast is just above the intensity consensus for the first 3 days, out of respect for Paulette's recent intensification above most of the guidance. By the weekend, Paulette's strength will heavily depend on its exact orientation relative to an upper-level low that is expected to be located west or southwest of the tropical storm. Some restrengthening could occur then, but the NHC forecast just shows a steady intensity, near the middle of the guidance suite. Paulette is forecast to turn generally west-northwestward or westward tonight and Wednesday as a mid-level ridge builds to its north. The guidance then indicates that late this week Paulette will turn northwestward when the ridge weakens. Differences in Paulette's forward speed on Wednesday and Thursday could result in a very different track late in the period since it affects the point at which the tropical storm will turn northwestward. The NHC forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus throughout the 5-day period, but confidence in the forecast beyond 72 h is lower than normal due to high spread in the track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 18.4N 43.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 19.0N 44.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 19.8N 45.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 20.3N 47.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 20.6N 49.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 20.7N 51.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 21.2N 52.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 23.1N 55.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 13/1200Z 26.0N 58.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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