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Tropical Storm Polo Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-11-18 15:40:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM PST Wed Nov 18 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 181440 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Polo Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 700 AM PST Wed Nov 18 2020 Satellite images indicate that the depression has strengthened into a tropical storm. The small central dense overcast has grown during the past several hours and a few banding features have formed. Dvorak estimates range from 30 to 45 kt, and the initial wind speed is set to 40 kt, which matches the latest CIMSS satellite consensus estimate. Polo could strengthen a little more today, but an increase in shear and dry-air entrainment should start the weakening process on Thursday, with the system expected to become a non-convective remnant low on Friday. The new NHC forecast is a little below the model consensus, close to the previous NHC forecast, leaning toward the idea that the small tropical cyclone will probably weaken faster than the bulk of the guidance anticipates. The initial motion continues to be west-northwestward at 10 kt. There has been no change to the forecast philosophy, with Polo forecast to remain on the southern side of a mid-level ridge throughout the period. The storm should turn more westward on Thursday as the system weakens and becomes more shallow. The new forecast is south of the latest model consensus, nudged slightly north of the previous NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 16.3N 116.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 16.5N 117.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 16.7N 119.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 16.9N 121.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 17.0N 123.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 21/0000Z 17.0N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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