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Tropical Storm Polo Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-11-18 21:33:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM PST Wed Nov 18 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 182033 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Polo Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 100 PM PST Wed Nov 18 2020 While the cloud pattern was fairly well organized this morning, Polo provided a little surprise when the center popped out of the central dense overcast. The system has since developed deep convection near the center, so perhaps this was a temporary fluctuation but reflects marginal environmental conditions. The initial wind speed is kept at 40 kt as a blend of the satellite data, and unfortunately scatterometer data missed again for a more certain estimate. Polo probably will peak in intensity during the next 12 hours or so before a combination of higher shear and dry/stable air causes the storm to weaken and eventually become a remnant low on Friday. No significant changes were made to the intensity forecast, and there were no meaningful model outliers from the NHC prediction. At least the exposed center allowed for a more precise initial motion estimate, though it ended up about the same as before 285/10. Model guidance is tightly clustered on the storm turning westward tomorrow while it remains to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge. The small cyclone will likely decay into a trough of low pressure by the weekend. Only cosmetic changes were made to the last forecast, which continues to lie near or just south of the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 16.5N 117.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 16.8N 118.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 17.0N 120.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 17.1N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 17.1N 125.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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