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Tropical Storm RACHEL Forecast Discussion Number 6
2014-09-25 22:48:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU SEP 25 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 252048 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 200 PM PDT THU SEP 25 2014 After strengthening earlier today, Rachel appears to have leveled off in intensity this afternoon. The initial wind speed is held at a possibly generous 45 kt based on the latest satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS. The low-level center of the storm is located near the northeastern edge of the main area of deep convection due to about 15 kt of shear. This shear is expected to lessen during the next couple of days, which should allow Rachel to gain strength. By the end of the weekend and early next week, the cyclone is expected to move over cooler water, and into an atmosphere of southwesterly shear and drier air. These unfavorable conditions should cause a weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one in the short term, but is otherwise unchanged and is near the SHIPS guidance. Rachel is moving west-northwestward at about 12 kt steered by mid-level ridging to its north and northeast. A large trough currently offshore of the west coast of the U.S. is expected to move eastward causing the ridge to weaken and shift eastward as well. This change in the synoptic pattern should cause Rachel to gradually turn northward during the next few days. By the end of the forecast period, the weakening system is expected to slow down or become stationary when it becomes embedded in weak low-level steering currents. The NHC track forecast is a little to the left of the previous one and slower at the end of the period, following the trend in the latest guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 17.0N 110.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 17.7N 112.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 18.7N 113.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 19.5N 115.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 20.4N 115.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 22.0N 116.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 22.8N 115.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 30/1800Z 23.1N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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