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Tropical Storm RICK Forecast Discussion Number 12
2015-11-21 09:37:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 210836 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 200 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2015 Rick has been moving quickly west-northwestward into a drier air mass, with all its associated deep convection lagging to the south and southeast of the low-level center. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on Dvorak CI numbers of 2.5 from TAFB and SAB, but if the convective organization doesn't improve, these numbers are likely to fall below the tropical storm threshold soon. Vertical shear is expected to increase substantially in about 36 hours, and the cyclone will continue to move toward cooler water and into an environment where the mid-level relative humidity is less than 50 percent. Therefore, Rick will likely weaken to a tropical depression sometime during the next 24 hours and degenerate to a remnant low by 48 hours. The updated NHC intensity forecast closely follows the SHIPS and LGEM guidance. A mid-level ridge extending westward from southern and central Mexico is steering Rick west-northwestward with an initial motion of 285/10 kt. A mid- to upper-level trough located between 125W and 140W is expected to move eastward and erode the western extent of the ridge during the next day or two, causing Rick to slow down and turn northwestward. After 48 hours, the remnant low should turn northward and slow down further in a weaker lower-tropospheric flow regime. No changes were required to the previous NHC track forecast, and the new one is close to the multi-model consensus of the dynamical models, with extra weight given to the typically skillful ECMWF model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 16.9N 113.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 17.2N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 17.9N 116.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 19.0N 117.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 20.1N 118.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/0600Z 21.8N 119.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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