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Tropical Storm RICK Forecast Discussion Number 14
2015-11-21 22:09:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM PST SAT NOV 21 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 212109 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 100 PM PST SAT NOV 21 2015 Microwave data and visible imagery indicate that the center of Rick is located farther south than estimated on the previous advisory. This places the center a little closer to the deep convection, but there remains little in the way of convective banding. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Satellite imagery shows dry, stable air working its way into the northwestern quadrant of the cyclone. This dry air plus shear increasing above 20 kt tonight should result in weakening, and Rick is expected to become a remnant low by 36 hours. The remnant low should gradually spin down and dissipate in about 4 days. Satellite fixes indicate that Rick has taken a westward jog during the past 6 to 12 hours, and the initial motion estimate is 275/10. Despite this, the overall synoptic reasoning has not changed, and Rick will gradually recurve in the next 2-3 days as it moves around the western edge of the subtropical ridge. As Rick becomes a shallow remnant low, it should move slowly northward until dissipation in the weak low-level flow. The new NHC track forecast is to the left of the previous one due to the initial position and motion, and is close to a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 16.8N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 17.3N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 18.5N 118.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 19.7N 119.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/1800Z 20.7N 120.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/1800Z 21.5N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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