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Tropical Storm ROSLYN Forecast Discussion Number 5
2016-09-26 16:42:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON SEP 26 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 261442 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM ROSLYN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 800 AM PDT MON SEP 26 2016 Roslyn remains a large, but sheared tropical storm. An 0847 UTC AMSR microwave overpass indicates that the low-level center is located well to west of the large area of deep convection, due to moderate southwesterly shear. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are unchanged from before, so the initial intensity is kept at 35 kt for this advisory. The southwesterly shear that is currently affecting the cyclone is predicted to increase during the next 24 hours, which should prevent significant strengthening while Roslyn remains over marginally warm water. In a little more than 24 hours, the tropical storm will be crossing the 26 deg C isotherm and moving into a more stable air mass, which should begin the weakening process. The NHC forecast shows Roslyn becoming a remnant low within 48 hours, and dissipating by the end of the forecast period. Recent fixes suggest that Roslyn is moving north-northeastward or 015/4 kt. The tropical storm should turn northeastward today in the southwesterly flow between a mid-level ridge to the southeast and a large mid- to upper-level low over the Baja California peninsula. After Roslyn weakens into a shallow remnant low, it should turn northward and then northwestward in the low-level flow west of the Baja peninsula. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, and is a blend of the GFS, ECMWF, and GFS ensemble mean. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 17.0N 119.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 17.5N 119.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 18.5N 118.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 19.7N 117.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 21.0N 117.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/1200Z 23.2N 118.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1200Z 24.5N 119.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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