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Tropical Storm Ramon Forecast Discussion Number 1
2017-10-04 11:03:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 040903 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ramon Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192017 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017 The small low pressure area located just south of the coast of southern Mexico has been producing persistent convection for about 12 hours. Although the convection is confined to the western portion of the circulation due to strong easterly shear, it has enough organization for the system to be classify as a tropical cyclone. Scatterometer data from 0410 UTC revealed a small area of 35-40 kt winds to the west of the center, so advisories are being initiated on a 40-kt tropical storm, the seventeenth tropical storm of the 2017 eastern Pacific hurricane season. Strong easterly shear is forecast to persist over Ramon during the next during the next few days, which is likely to prevent strengthening of the small tropical storm. The ECMWF and GFS weaken the cyclone over the next day or so, although both models show some interaction with another disturbance farther west in a couple of days. The NHC forecast is of low confidence and calls for no change in strength throughout the forecast period. An alternate scenario is for Ramon to move closer to the coast of Mexico and dissipate within the next 2-3 days. Ramon is moving westward or 270/8 kt to the south of a deep layer ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The ridge is forecast to build westward over northern Mexico during the next few days, which should cause Ramon to move westward at a slightly faster forward speed. Later in the period, Ramon is forecast to reach the western portion of the ridge and turn northwestward. Although most of the model guidance agrees with this general scenario, there is a fair amount of spread in the track models. The GFS and HWRF show a faster westward motion while the ECMWF is much slower. The UKMET is the outlier by taking Ramon eastward toward central America as a low pressure area develops over the western Caribbean. Given the large spread in the guidance, the NHC track forecast shows a slower westward track and is close to the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means. The confidence in the track forecast is quite low and interests along the southern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 14.3N 96.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 14.3N 97.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 14.3N 99.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 14.3N 102.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 14.4N 104.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 14.5N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 14.5N 111.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 15.5N 112.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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