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Tropical Storm Raymond Forecast Discussion Number 5
2019-11-16 03:35:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM MST Fri Nov 15 2019 161 WTPZ45 KNHC 160235 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 800 PM MST Fri Nov 15 2019 Raymond has changed little in organization over the past several hours, with bursts of deep convection continuing mainly over the eastern semicircle. A pair of recent microwave overpasses confirm that westerly shear continues to impact the cyclone, disrupting the inner-core from getting well established. The initial intensity is kept at 45 kt for this advisory and is in agreement with the latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB. The moderate shear over the cyclone is forecast to continue through tonight while the storm remains in a moist environment and over warm water. These conditions will likely help to continue these large bursts of convection, and as a result some slight strengthening is expected to occur. On Saturday, a strong mid- to upper- level trough is forecast to dig southeastward to the west of Baja California. This will bring a steady increase in southwesterly shear across Raymond, with the shear values possibly approaching 50 kt by 48 hours. As a result, Raymond should begin to weaken by late Saturday. One uncertainty in the intensity forecast is whether or not Raymond will bring tropical-storm-force winds to the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. The official forecast calls for Raymond to be a weakening 35 kt tropical storm as it approaches, but these winds may be to the east of the peninsula. Subsequently, Raymond is expected to become a remnant low due to the shear. Forecast guidance is in good agreement on the above scenario, with some variations in timing. Regardless of the cyclone's status, rainfall associated with Raymond will likely spread northward into southern portions of the Baja California peninsula in a couple of days. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding. Raymond is now moving north-northwest at 9 kt around a mid-level ridge to the east of the cyclone. A turn to the north then perhaps north-northeast is expected Saturday and Saturday night as the system rounds the northwestern periphery of the ridge and becomes under the influence of the southwesterly winds associated with the approaching trough. Once the system loses its deep convection in a few days, it should turn to the northwest in the low-level flow. The latest official forecast is near the previous one and the clustered consensus track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 15.4N 109.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 16.6N 110.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 18.3N 110.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 20.3N 109.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 22.4N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 26.0N 110.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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