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Tropical Storm Raymond Forecast Discussion Number 7
2019-11-16 15:32:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM MST Sat Nov 16 2019 779 WTPZ45 KNHC 161432 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 800 AM MST Sat Nov 16 2019 Raymond is a sheared cyclone with the low-level center located on the western edge of the convection as indicated by microwave data. Although the cloud pattern has become less organized since yesterday, Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB still support an initial intensity of 45 kt. It appears that Raymond has already peaked in intensity, and given that the shear over the cyclone will increase significantly, the NHC forecast calls for weakening. Raymond is forecast to be a tropical depression or even a remnant near low by time the cyclone reaches the southern portion of the Baja California in about 36 hours. In about 2 or 3 days, Raymond or its remnants are expected to be absorbed by a developing mid-to upper level trough just west of the peninsula. Raymond appears to be moving toward the north or 355 degrees at 8 kt. Soon, the cyclone will be embedded within the southerly flow ahead of the developing trough or low mentioned above. This flow pattern should steer Raymond on a general northward track until it becomes a shallow cyclone. After that time, it should move move toward the north-northwest with the low-level flow. The later portion of the track forecast is highly uncertain given that the cyclone will be very weak or probably dissipating. Regardless of Raymond's status when it nears the Baja peninsula, rainfall associated with the cyclone and the developing trough will likely spread northward into southern portions of the Baja California peninsula later this weekend. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 16.5N 111.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 17.8N 111.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 20.0N 111.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 22.2N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 24.5N 111.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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