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Tropical Storm SIMON Forecast Discussion Number 6
2014-10-03 04:36:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU OCT 02 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 030236 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 800 PM PDT THU OCT 02 2014 A series of microwave overpasses during the past few hours confirmed that Simon is a little south and east of previous estimates, and that the cyclone is now moving westward or 270 degrees at 4 kt. Although the cloud pattern is gradually becoming better organized with more symmetric convection and better-defined outflow, Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB indicate that the winds are still 45 kt. The CIMSS-ADT indicate that Simon could be a little stronger. Simon is forecast to move soon over a pool of even warmer water and the shear is light. This should result in strengthening, and the NHC forecast calls for Simon to become a hurricane in about 24 hours. In fact, rapid intensification is not out of the question since the SHIPS-RI index has increased again tonight. After 3 days, the circulation of the cyclone will begin to feel the influence of cooler waters and a stable environment, and gradual weakening should commence. There is high confidence that Simon will gradually turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed during the next 3 days while the cyclone is located on the southwestern side of the high pressure system over Mexico. Most of the track guidance agree with this scenario. After that time, the confidence in the track forecast is quite low since the GFS together with its dependent models recurve the cyclone toward the Baja California peninsula. On the contrary, the ECMWF keeps Simon moving westward over open waters. The NHC forecast is in the middle of these two extremes, and for now keeps Simon drifting northward by the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 18.1N 108.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 18.3N 109.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 18.9N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 19.6N 113.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 20.7N 114.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 22.5N 115.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 24.0N 115.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 24.5N 115.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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