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Tropical Storm SONIA Forecast Discussion Number 12
2013-11-04 03:32:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM PST SUN NOV 03 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 040232 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM SONIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 700 PM PST SUN NOV 03 2013 MUCH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SONIA IS BEING DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATION DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS REDUCED TO 35 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB. SONIA COULD WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION JUST BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL... AND RAPID WEAKENING WILL ENSUE AFTER THE CYCLONE MOVES INLAND DUE TO MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND PROHIBITIVELY HIGH SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A 24-HOUR FORECAST POINT FOR A REMNANT LOW OVER MEXICO...ALTHOUGH IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO ACTUALLY MAINTAIN ITS IDENTITY FOR THAT LONG. THE CENTER LOCATION IS RATHER UNCERTAIN...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED AND THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 030/15. THIS MOTION SHOULD BE MORE OR LESS MAINTAINED FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WHILE SONIA IS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE FASTER INITIAL MOTION. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM SONIA CONTINUES TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 23.2N 108.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 25.0N 107.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 05/0000Z 27.0N 104.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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