Home Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Discussion Number 22
 

Keywords :   


Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Discussion Number 22

2019-11-24 21:59:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Nov 24 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 242059 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Sebastien Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 500 PM AST Sun Nov 24 2019 Sebastien is gradually losing tropical characteristics. Satellite images show a large shield of relatively cold cloud tops on the north side of the system and in a band that extends from east of the center south-southwestward. This cloud pattern resembles an extratropical cyclone. However, satellite images and microwave data also show a small area of deep convection lingering over the center, which is why the system is still designated a tropical cyclone for now. That being said, it is still not clear that the surface circulation of the storm is well defined. Hopefully, ASCAT data later this evening can help assess the structure of the circulation. The initial intensity is held at 55 kt, which is in agreement with the most recent SATCON estimate from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. Sebastien is expected to slowly weaken as it remains in very strong wind shear conditions while moving over progressively colder waters. FSU phase-analysis diagrams from the global models all show Sebastien becoming fully extratropical overnight, and the NHC forecast follows that scenario. The extratropical low is expected to merge with another cyclone in 24 to 36 hours. It is also possible, as alluded to above, that Sebastien could open into a trough before then. Sebastien is racing toward the east-northeast ahead of a cold front, and the initial motion estimate is 060/34 kt. This continued heading at an even faster rate is expected within the fast mid-latitude flow until the cyclone dissipates. Regardless of whether it is a tropical cyclone, extratropical cyclone, or a remnant trough, Sebastien or its remnants will likely bring gusty winds and heavy rains to portions of the Azores through Monday morning. Please see products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere (IPMA) for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 39.2N 32.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 42.2N 25.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 25/1800Z 46.3N 17.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 26/0600Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

Category:Transportation and Logistics

Latest from this category

All news

24.01Social Media Content Coordinator2013008
24.01C Python Software Engineer for Satellite Imagery Tool Development
24.01C Python Senior Software Engineer Team Leader for Satellite Imagery Tool Development
24.01Embedded Software Developer
24.01Software Build Engineer
24.01Flight Dynamics Engineer
23.01Engineering ESA Academy
23.01Junior Earth Observation Support Engineer
Transportation and Logistics »
26.01UK farming industry responds to new climate change report
26.01Amazon to deploy 10,000 electric delivery rickshaws in India by 2025
26.01Memorial benches: 'A quiet reminder of people gone, but not forgotten'
26.01The rapid rise of 'Buy now, pay later'
26.01Boeing 777X: Worlds largest twin-engine jet completes first flight
26.01Coronavirus: Could it damage the global economy?
25.01Harry and Meghan: Hagan Homes apologises over housing ads
25.01Brexit: US 'wants to reach trade deal with UK this year'
More »