je.st
news
Tropical Storm Selma Forecast Discussion Number 4
2017-10-28 04:35:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 280235 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Selma Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202017 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Selma has not become any better organized during the past several hours. The center of the tropical storm is partially exposed between a small curved band to its southeast and weakening convection to the west. Recent microwave data confirmed that Selma is a compact system, and the associated tropical-storm-force winds are estimated to extend no more than 40 n mi from the center. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt, in agreement with the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB. Satellite fixes indicate that Selma has moved northward to north-northeastward during the past 6 to 12 hours, and the storm lies a little to the east of the previous NHC track prediction. A general northward motion is expected overnight, and that should bring the center of Selma near the coast of El Salvador by Saturday morning. The new NHC track forecast has shifted to the east based on the initial position and motion, and it lies close to the consensus models. Little change in strength is likely while Selma approaches the coast. Once the storm moves inland, rapid weakening is expected and the system will likely dissipate over the rugged terrain of Central America by Saturday night. The primary threat associated with Selma is heavy rainfall, with accumulations possibly as high as 10 inches over portions of El Salvador and Guatemala. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 12.3N 89.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 13.4N 89.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 24H 29/0000Z 14.3N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||