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Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 43
2018-10-10 04:37:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 100236 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 43 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 PM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018 The GOES-15 satellite presentation and an earlier ATMS polar orbiter microwave image revealed little change in Sergio's cloud pattern during the past 6 hours. Deep convection persists in the north semicircle in the form of a rather large curved band while the southern portion is comprised of fragmented bands. A blend of the Dvorak satellite classifications, which haven't changed much, supports holding the initial intensity at 60 kt for this advisory. Very little change in strength is forecast during the next 6-12 hours, as Sergio traverses relatively warm oceanic temperatures and remains in a low shear surrounding environment. Afterward, statistical and dynamical intensity guidance shows weakening through the 48 period, or prior to landfall, as the cyclone moves over cooler waters and into a region of increasing southwesterly vertical shear. Over the weekend, after quickly moving over Baja California Sur, Sergio will weaken further over the state of Sonora in northwestern Mexico, degenerate into a remnant low by day 4, and dissipate over the Southern Plains of the United States. The initial motion is estimated to be east-northeastward, or 060/10 kt, within the deep-layer southwesterly flow produced by a mid-latitude trough stretching southwestward over the eastern Pacific from the southwestern United States. Sergio should continue to accelerate toward the east-northeast or northeast over the next few days, moving over Baja California Sur on Friday, and over the Gulf of California and into northwestern Mexico Friday night and Saturday. The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants will likely be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain in the Mexico state of Sonora, the U.S. Southern Plains and the Ozarks through the weekend. For more information about this potential hazard, see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 17.5N 125.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 18.2N 124.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 19.6N 121.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 21.7N 119.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 24.1N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 28.7N 110.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 14/0000Z 33.0N 101.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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