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Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 45
2018-10-10 16:45:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 101445 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 45 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 AM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018 The cloud pattern associated with Sergio has not changed very much, and it consists of a cyclonically curved convective band surrounding a large and ragged eye feature. Since the convection is weaker, the Dvorak estimates suggest that winds are gradually decreasing, and the initial intensity has been lowered to 55 kt. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 12 to 24 hours while the cyclone is still moving over relatively warm waters and is embedded in a low shear environment. Both of these factors will become unfavorable soon, and consequently, the NHC forecast calls for weakening. Sergio, however, is expected to still be a tropical storm by the time it approaches the Baja California peninsula. After that time, Sergio will move over mainland Mexico and weaken much faster. Sergio is moving toward the northeast or 055 degrees at 11 kt. The cyclone is embedded within the southwesterly winds associated with a large mid-latitude trough, and this flow pattern will continue to steer Sergio toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed. The forecast track brings the center of a weakened Sergio over the central portion of the Baja California peninsula in about 2 days, but winds along the coast are anticipated to increase earlier. Track models are in very good agreement, and consequently the guidance envelope is quite tight. The NHC forecast is not different from the previous one and is in the middle of the guidance envelope. The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain in the Mexico state of Sonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and the Ozarks through the weekend. For more information about this potential hazard, see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 18.4N 123.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 19.7N 121.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 22.0N 119.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 24.5N 116.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 27.0N 113.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 31.5N 104.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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