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Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 47
2018-10-11 04:41:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 110241 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 47 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 PM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018 This evening's satellite presentation depicts a rather ragged and elongated banding eye-like feature with fragmented curved bands encircling the periphery of cyclone. The subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, however, still yield an initial intensity of 55 kt. The UW-CIMSS shear analysis shows that the westerly shear has increased to 15-20 kt, and the Decay-SHIPS as well as the global models indicate that the shear magnitude will increase further to near 50 kt prior to landfall. This inhibiting upper wind pattern along with slightly cooler oceanic temperatures should influence some further weakening as it approaches the Baja California peninsula. Sergio is forecast to move inland over Baja California Sur on Friday and into the northwestern Mexico state of Sonora early Saturday as a depression. At the end of the forecast period, Sergio is expected to further degenerate into a post-tropical weak low over the southwestern United States. The intensity forecast is based on the NOAA-HCCA, and the GFS/ECMWF global models which show Sergio making landfall Friday as a tropical storm. The initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 050/14 kt, and this general motion is forecast through the entire 72 hour period with a continued increase in forward speed. Sergio will be approaching the central Baja California peninsula Friday, although the tropical-storm-force winds are likely to arrive Thursday night. There is continued high confidence in the forecast track as the available large-scale and hurricane models are clustered tightly together through 72 hours. The NHC forecast lies in the middle of the guidance cluster and is close to the TVCN/HCCA consensus models. The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur, Sonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and the Ozarks through the weekend. For more information about this potential hazard, see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 20.0N 121.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 21.8N 119.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 24.4N 116.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 27.2N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 13/0000Z 30.0N 109.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 14/0000Z 34.4N 98.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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