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Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 48
2018-10-11 10:37:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 110837 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 AM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018 Sergio's cloud pattern has changed little during the past several hours, and the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB haven't changed either. A partial ASCAT-B scatterometer pass revealed numerous 45-kt winds and a 50-kt northerly wind in the coldest cloud tops of the curved band wrapping around the north portion of the circulation. Based on these data, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory. The intensity forecast philosophy remains unchanged. A combination of increasing southwesterly shear, a drier and more stable surrounding environment, and slightly cooler oceanic temperatures should influence some weakening as it approaches the Baja California peninsula. The cyclone is expected to move inland over Baja California Sur on Friday and into the northwestern Mexico state of Sonora early Saturday. Afterward, rapid weakening, and ultimately dissipation, is expected after Sergio makes its second landfall along the coast of the mainland Mexico. A 72 hour post-tropical/remnant low point is maintained to simply represent the inland motion of Sergio. The intensity forecast is once again based on the NOAA-HCCA, and the GFS/ECMWF global models, which show Sergio making landfall Friday as a tropical storm. The initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 050/15 kt, within the deep-layer southwesterly flow produced by a mid-latitude trough stretching southwestward over the eastern Pacific from the southwestern United States. Sergio should continue moving in this general motion through the entire 72 hour period with a continued increase in forward speed. Sergio will be approaching the central Baja California peninsula Friday, although the tropical-storm-force winds are likely to arrive Thursday night. The NHC forecast lies in the middle of the tightly clustered guidance and is close to the multi-model consensus aids. The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur, Sonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and the Ozarks through the weekend. For more information about this potential hazard, see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 21.0N 120.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 23.0N 117.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 25.7N 114.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 28.4N 111.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 13/0600Z 31.0N 107.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 14/0600Z 35.3N 96.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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