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Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 49
2018-10-11 16:39:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 111439 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 49 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018 The cloud pattern of Sergio continues to show organization with a couple of cyclonically curved hooking bands, however the convection in these bands is weak to moderate. Dvorak estimates suggest that the initial intensity still is 55 kt. Sergio is about to move over cooler waters and the shear is forecast to increase significantly, so the expected weakening process should begin later today. Nevertheless, the cyclone should still be a tropical storm when it moves over the Baja California peninsula, but it should dissipate once it moves over the high terrain of the Mexican mainland over the state of Sonora. Satellite fixes indicate that Sergio is moving toward the northeast about 17 kt. The storm is embedded within the deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with a broad mid-latitude trough located just off the U.S. west coast. This flow pattern will continue to steer Sergio toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed. Track models are in excellent agreement and unanimously bring Sergio over the central portion of the Baja California peninsula in about 24 hours and so does the official forecast. The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur, Sonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and the Ozarks through the weekend. For more information about this potential hazard, see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 22.2N 118.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 24.2N 116.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 27.0N 113.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 29.5N 109.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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