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Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 53
2018-10-12 16:57:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 121457 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 53 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 900 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018 The center of Sergio crossed the central portion of the Baja California peninsula and is now moving over the Sea of Cortez. The convection has weakened and is displaced to the north of the still vigorous low-level circulation. Based on observations from the automatic stations of the Mexican Navy, the initial intensity is 35 kt. The effect of the high terrain and shear will result in additional weakening, and Sergio will likely become a tropical depression this afternoon and dissipate over northwestern Mexico later today or tonight. Sergio is moving toward the northeast at 20 kt embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. This track should continue until dissipation in about 12 hours over Northwestern Mexico. The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur, Sonora, portions of the desert southwest and the U.S. Southern Plains through the weekend. For more information about this potential hazard, see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 27.5N 111.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 29.5N 109.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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