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Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 9
2018-10-01 16:33:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Oct 01 2018 009 WTPZ41 KNHC 011433 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 900 AM MDT Mon Oct 01 2018 Sergio is almost a hurricane. Satellite images indicate that the central convection has been increasing in intensity during the past several hours, but there are still no indications of an eye in that data. Microwave imagery does show an eye feature, however. The outer bands are not particularly well organized, and there are some dry slots beyond the inner core. The initial intensity is held at 60 kt, following a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates. As mentioned in the previous discussion, the models have been too bullish on Sergio strengthening during the past couple of days. This could be due to the aforementioned dry slots that were not well predicted by both the statistical and dynamical guidance. Looking ahead to the next several days, the environmental conditions are mixed. The wind shear and SSTs appear conducive for strengthening during the next couple of days, so steady intensification is predicted during that time period. However, as seen during the past day or two, dry air could slow the intensification rate. Beyond a couple of days, the models show a brief increase in shear and a steady decrease in mid-level moisture and SSTs. These conditions will likely end the opportunity for strengthening and cause a slow weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is about the same as the previous one, and it lies between the usually reliable HCCA and IVCN consensus models. Sergio is moving westward at 10 kt steered by a mid-level ridge to its north and northeast. A continued westward motion is expected for another day followed by a turn to the west-northwest and then the northwest as the western side of the ridge weakens due to a large-scale trough near the southwestern United States. By the end of the forecast period, a ridge is expected to build to the north of Sergio, which should cause a turn back to the left. The models are in very good agreement overall, and little change has been made to the previous forecast track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 11.5N 109.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 11.4N 111.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 11.7N 113.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 12.4N 115.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 13.3N 116.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 15.3N 119.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 17.0N 121.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 18.0N 124.3W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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