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Tropical Storm VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 24
2014-11-05 03:47:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM PST TUE NOV 04 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 050247 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 700 PM PST TUE NOV 04 2014 The convective organization of Vance has continued to erode significantly since the previous advisory due to strong south-southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 45 kt and entrainment of drier air. As a result, the initial intensity has been decreased to 45 kt based on a blend of various satellite intensity estimates. Additional rapid weakening is expected until landfall occurs in about 18 hours or so, and Vance could be a tropical depression at that time. After landfall, Vance is expected to quickly dissipate over the mountainous terrain of northwestern Mexico. The initial motion estimate is 025/12 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Vance is expected to remain embedded within south-southwesterly flow on the east side of deep-layer trough for the next 24 hours, which should result in a north-northeastward motion until landfall occurs. Moisture from Vance is spreading northeastward across Mexico and into the south-central United States. This is producing heavy rains over portions of these areas which should continue through Thursday or Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 21.5N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 23.1N 107.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 25.3N 106.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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