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Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Discussion Number 12
2018-10-22 10:36:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 220836 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 400 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018 Vicente's cloud pattern has become better organized during the past several hours. A burst of deep convection has developed near the surface center, and a developing curved band with associated cold cloud tops of -80C is wrapping around nearly 70 percent of the cyclone's circulation. A SATCON analysis, subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and an earlier 0325 UTC ISRO ScatSAT-1 overpass support an initial intensity increase to 40 kt for this advisory. Despite this temporary strengthening interlude, modest northeasterly shear as indicated by the statistical intensity aids and the UW-CIMSS shear product should induce weakening soon. In fact, most of the large-scale models agree with dissipation in 36 hours, or show the cyclone reaching the Mexico coastline around the 48-hour period as a depression. Although the majority of the models support dissipation over water, the NHC forecast will reflect landfall as a tropical depression for continuity purposes. Regardless of the forecast intensity scenarios, the primary hazard will be heavy rainfall across portions of southern and southwestern Mexico, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/9 kt, within southeast to easterly steering flow produced by a mid-tropospheric ridge extending westward over southern Mexico from the central Gulf of Mexico. Vicente is expected to round the southwestern to western periphery of the aforementioned ridge during the next 36 hours, or prior to dissipation. The track forecast is a little slower than the previous advisory, and is based on a blend of the Florida State Superensemble and the TVCN multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 14.1N 99.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 14.8N 100.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 16.1N 102.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 17.7N 103.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 19.5N 104.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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