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Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Discussion Number 14
2018-10-22 22:33:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 222033 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018 Satellite imagery indicates that Vicente continues to lose organization. Deep convection has been sporadic and is generally limited to the east and south of the storm's center. Unfortunately, the most recent ASCAT pass missed the center of the system, so we are unable to verify if Vicente's circulation is still closed. Due to Vicente's deteriorating satellite presentation, the initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt, which is a blend of Dvorak Current Intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. This intensity estimate may be generous, however. Although sea-surface temperatures near Vicente are quite warm (29 degrees C), the storm continues to be negatively affected by northeasterly vertical wind shear. Moreover, the cyclone's small size has likely made it more susceptible to shear. Although the shear is forecast to weaken slightly over the the next day or so, the influence of the large circulation of Hurricane Willa and the interaction with land is likely to cause the storm to dissipate in 24-36 hours, or less. The majority of the dynamical guidance models dissipate Vicente by tomorrow afternoon and the official forecast calls for dissipation by 36 h. It should be noted that, given the current tenuous state of Vicente, the system could dissipate at any time. Vicente's current motion is west-northwestward, or 300/10 kt. The system is forecast to turn toward the northwest and north-northwest while moving between the mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern portion of the circulation of Willa. The official track forecast is a little faster than the previous one and roughly in the middle of the model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 15.4N 101.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 16.8N 102.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 19.0N 104.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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