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Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Discussion Number 15
2018-10-23 04:49:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 230249 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018 Although conventional satellite imagery is unimpressive tonight, a pair of microwave passes indicate there is probably still a low-level circulation remaining with Vicente. The center is located between the main convective band to the south, and sporadic cells north of the center. All of the intensity estimates that I have suggest the intensity is no lower than 35 kt, so the initial wind speed will stay 35 kt. Continued northeasterly shear will very likely cause Vicente to weaken soon, and this is the solution presented by most of the guidance. The new NHC track forecast shows Vicente coming ashore as a tropical depression tomorrow over Mexico, most similar to the GFS model. Vicente is moving northwestward, or 320/11 kt. The system should move a little faster and to the right between the mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern portion of the circulation of Willa. The official track forecast is a bit east of the previous one, in line with the latest guidance. The 24-hour position is simply a placeholder to get Vicente inland because the cyclone will probably dissipate not long after it reaches land due to the high terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 16.4N 102.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 17.9N 103.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 19.5N 104.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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