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Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Discussion Number 6
2018-10-20 22:32:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 202032 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018 The cloud pattern associated with Vicente is quite peculiar. In addition on being unusually small, it has an intermittent eye feature surrounded by moderate to shallow convection. A very useful ASCAT pass a few hours ago showed that Vicente has a very tight circulation with maximum winds of 40 to 45 kt, and the tropical-storm-force winds extend only 20 n mi from the center. On this basis, and an average of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity has been adjusted upward to 45 kt. Now that the circulation is farther from land, the chances of some slight strengthening have increased in the next 24 to 36 hours before Vicente encounters the larger circulation of Willa. In fact, most of the global models advertise that in about 3 days or so Vicente will dissipate, and so does the official forecast. Satellite fixes indicate that Vicente is moving toward the west or 265 degrees at 8 kt. The nose of a strong subtropical ridge is forecast to amplify and expand westward. This flow pattern should force Vicente to move on a west or even west-southwest track for the next 24 to 36 hours. Then as the cyclone reaches the southwestern end of the ridge and encounters the eastern portion of Willa's circulation, Vicente should turn toward the northwest and north. Vicente should become absorbed by the larger Willa and dissipation could occur earlier than indicated in the forecast at this time given the solution of the global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 14.6N 94.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 14.0N 95.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 13.7N 97.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 14.0N 99.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 15.0N 101.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 17.5N 103.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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