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Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Discussion Number 9
2018-10-21 16:42:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 211442 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 Vicente remains a tiny tropical cyclone, and its cloud pattern consists of a small Central Dense Overcast with disorganized convection over the southwestern portion of the circulation. There is little evidence of banding features at this time. The current intensity is held at 45 kt in agreement with subjective Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB. North-northeasterly vertical shear is likely to limit intensification during the next couple of days. Vicente should quickly dissipate when it interacts with the land mass of Mexico by mid-week. Satellite fixes and images from the Puerto Angel, Mexico radar indicate that the storm is still moving a little south of west, and the motion estimate continues to be 255/8 kt. There has been little change in the track forecast or the reasoning behind it. Vicente should gradually turn toward the west and northwest while moving along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high pressure area. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and close to the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 14.4N 96.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 14.2N 98.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 14.4N 99.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 15.4N 101.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 16.9N 102.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 19.7N 104.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch
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