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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-09-15 10:35:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 150835 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 500 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 Vicky remains sheared this morning with strong upper-level winds causing any deep convection to be located northeast of the center. The low-level circulation has also become distorted as well, with new bursts of convection causing the mean circulation to re-form to the north. The initial wind speed is kept 45 kt since the system isn't appreciably different than the last cycle. Models all weaken the storm during the next couple of days due to rather potent westerly shear (with 200-mb westerly winds as high as 70 kt forecast across Vicky's circulation). These extremely harsh conditions should make the intensity prediction rather simple, and Vicky is likely to decay into a remnant low within a day or two and open up into a trough in a few days. The re-formation of the center leads to an uncertain motion estimate of 325/8 kt. The storm should turn west-northwestward later today and westward on Wednesday as it becomes steered by the low-level subtropical ridge. Little change was made to the previous forecast, except for a small northward adjustment in the first day or so of the prediction due to the initial position. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 20.3N 30.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 21.0N 31.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 21.7N 33.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 22.2N 35.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0600Z 22.5N 37.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/1800Z 22.5N 38.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0600Z 22.5N 40.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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