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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-09-16 10:26:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 160826 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 Vicky remains a strongly sheared and poorly organized tropical storm. The low-level center is displaced to the west-southwest of the main area of deep convection due to strong westerly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data, which is well above the Dvorak estimates. Vicky is expected to remain in hostile wind shear conditions while traversing 26 C waters, so it seems likely that weakening should occur. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the model guidance and shows gradual weakening during the next few days. Vicky is expected to become a remnant low in a couple of days, but it is always tricky to figure out when these systems will lose all of its convection since it is forecast to stay over relatively warm waters. The storm continues to more west-northwestward, a little to the left of the previous track at 285/9. Vicky should gradually turn westward later today and west-southwestward in a couple of days when it becomes a shallow cyclone and moves in the low-level flow. The new track forecast is just a little south of the previous one to be closer to the latest consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 21.6N 33.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 21.9N 35.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 22.0N 36.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 22.0N 38.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 21.7N 40.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/1800Z 21.4N 42.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0600Z 20.8N 44.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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