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Tropical Storm Xavier Forecast Discussion Number 10
2018-11-05 03:35:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM CST Sun Nov 04 2018 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 050234 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018 900 PM CST Sun Nov 04 2018 Xavier continues to be influenced by strong southwesterly shear, on the order of 30 kt, yet appears to be maintaining its intensity for now. In fact, microwave imagery shows only a slight eastward tilt of the center with height which is surprising for a tropical cyclone apparently experiencing shear of such magnitude. It is quite possible that strong upper-level divergence over the area is helping to maintain the strength of the storm. Dvorak intensity estimates remain at 45 kt from both TAFB and SAB which will continue to be used for the advisory intensity. In spite of Xavier's resilience to a hostile atmospheric environment, the strong shear and an increasingly drier mid-level air mass should soon take their toll on the cyclone. The GFS and the ECMWF global models suggest that the system will degenerate into a remnant low within a couple of days, and this is also shown by the official forecast. Xavier has been moving slowly and just to the west of north, or a motion of 350/5 kt, toward a slight weakness in the mid-level flow to the southeast of the Baja California peninsula. A ridge is forecast to build to the north of the cyclone, and this should cause Xavier to turn toward the west-northwest during the next day or so. By 3-4 days, the weak and shallow cyclone is likely to move generally westward within the low-level flow field. The official forecast is similar to the previous one and is very close to the latest dynamical model consensus track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 18.5N 105.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 18.8N 106.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 19.3N 107.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 19.6N 108.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 19.8N 109.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/0000Z 19.7N 112.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/0000Z 19.5N 113.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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