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Tropical Storm Xavier Forecast Discussion Number 12
2018-11-05 15:32:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM MST Mon Nov 05 2018 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 051432 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018 800 AM MST Mon Nov 05 2018 A burst of deep convection occurred over the low-level center around the time of the last advisory, but that activity has again been scoured off to the northeast due to 30 kt of southwesterly shear. Satellite intensity estimates have not changed, and the initial intensity remains 50 kt, which is very close to the latest UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON estimates. Xavier has been tenaciously resisting the ill effects of shear for the time being. However, the circulation will be moving westward toward a drier environment where mid-level relative humidity values are 30-40 percent. In theory, the combination of strong shear and drier air should put an end to deep convection production, but relatively warm waters could still allow the cyclone to produce intermittent bursts of shower and thunderstorm activity over the next several days. Based on the latest intensity guidance, no changes were made to the official forecast, which continues to show Xavier becoming a remnant low in 48 hours and dissipating by day 4. Caught within a break in the subtropical ridge, Xavier is only creeping west-northwestward, or 295/3 kt. As deep convection gradually dwindles near the cyclone, the shallower circulation is expected to be steered westward to the south of a low-level ridge stretching across northern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula. The new NHC track forecast is nearly identical to the previous one during the first 24 hours. After 24 hours, it has been nudged southward toward the various consensus aids, continuing the trend that was noted by the previous forecaster. Even though Xavier is slowly moving away from the coast of Mexico, inclement weather is still occurring near the coasts of Colima and Jalisco, and tropical-storm-force winds could still be occurring in that vicinity. Therefore, it's prudent to continue the Tropical Storm Warning until we have confirmation that the strong winds have shifted farther offshore. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 18.5N 106.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 18.7N 107.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 18.9N 108.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 18.9N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 18.8N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1200Z 18.5N 113.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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