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Tropical Storm Xavier Forecast Discussion Number 13
2018-11-05 21:35:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM MST Mon Nov 05 2018 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 052034 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018 200 PM MST Mon Nov 05 2018 All of Xavier's deep convection dissipated around 1500 UTC, leaving a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with embedded shower activity. The initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt based on a pair of recent ASCAT passes over the circulation. Strong southwesterly shear and the surrounding dry environment finally appear to have cut off the production of deep convection, and although intermittent bursts of thunderstorms are still possible, it is unlikely that the circulation will be able to produce persistent organized convection. Therefore, Xavier's degeneration into a remnant low has been moved up by 24 hours in the official forecast, although it is entirely possible that it could become a post-tropical low as early as tonight. Xavier's winds are also expected to continue to gradually diminish, likely falling below tropical-storm-force overnight or early Tuesday. The remnant low should then dissipate by day 4. The initial motion is a little faster toward the west-northwest (300 degrees) at 4 kt. A low-level ridge extending from northern Mexico westward over the Pacific should drive the now-shallow circulation west-northwestward to westward at a slightly faster speed during the next few days. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted northward to account for recent motion trends, but it otherwise lies through the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the HCCA and Florida State Superensemble guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 19.0N 106.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 19.2N 107.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 19.3N 108.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0600Z 19.3N 110.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1800Z 19.1N 111.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1800Z 19.0N 112.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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