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Tropical Storm Xavier Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-11-03 03:33:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Nov 02 2018 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 030233 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018 900 PM MDT Fri Nov 02 2018 For the 22nd time this year, a tropical storm (Xavier) has formed over the eastern North Pacific. The most recent intensity estimates from TAFB and the UW-CIMSS SATCON support increasing the initial intensity to 35 kt. Xavier is the first tropical storm to reach the "X" name on the East Pacific namelist since 1992. No changes of note were made to the intensity forecast. The tropical storm is strongly sheared from the southwest and convective activity is limited to the eastern semicircle of the cyclone. Although Xavier should be located over warm waters for the next 5 days, strong upper-level southwesterly flow will cause high wind shear across the cyclone. The HWRF, HMON, and COAMPS-TC models all forecast that the tropical storm could strengthen a little more over the next day or so, while the statistical guidance indicates that Xavier is already near its peak intensity. The NHC intensity forecast follows the consensus and shows slight strengthening through the weekend. By early next week, increased shear and a drier surrounding environment will likely cause Xavier to weaken and become a remnant low. It has been difficult to identify the center of Xavier this evening, but it is estimated that the tropical storm is still moving generally east-northeastward at around 7 kt. A weakness in the subtropical ridge created by a large deep-layer trough extending over central Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico should cause Xavier to turn toward the northeast or north overnight and tomorrow. There has been a shift in the GFS and its associated regional models, which now show a farther northeast track of Xavier, closer to the coast of Mexico. However, a majority of the dynamical models still show the cyclone turning abruptly westward and away from land while it weakens by early next week. Out of respect for the ECMWF and its ensemble, which show a much farther west track for Xavier, the NHC forecast has been nudged only slightly toward the northeast through 48 h and now lies a little to the west of the TVCE track consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 14.5N 108.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 14.8N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 15.6N 106.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 16.4N 106.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 17.1N 106.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 17.8N 107.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 17.5N 109.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 18.0N 111.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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