je.st
news
Tag: discussion
Hurricane Pablo Forecast Discussion Number 8
2019-10-27 15:50:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 27 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 271450 TCDAT3 Hurricane Pablo Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 27 2019 Satellite imagery shows that Pablo has continued to maintain a small eye, and that the eyewall cloud tops have recently cooled. In addition, early morning microwave satellite intensity estimates, as well as the CIMSS satellite consensus, indicate that Pablo has become a hurricane. The initial intensity is increased to 65 kt as a blend between the subjective estimate from TAFB and the higher SATCON estimate, and it is possible this is a little conservative. The intensification has occurred while Pablo is over sea surface temperatures of 19-20C, and it is likely that cold mid- to upper-level air temperatures have allowed the cyclone to maintain deep convection and strengthen over water temperatures where tropical cyclones normally weaken. The initial motion is now 030/28. The cyclone is expected to turn northward and slow its forward motion as it approaches a frontal system to the north during the next 12-24 h, and this will be followed by a turn toward the northwest as a large mid-latitude low over the north central Atlantic becomes the main steering mechanism. The track guidance has again shifted a little to the east, and the new forecast track is also nudged a little to the east of the previous track. Like the previous forecast, it lies close to the various consensus models. Pablo should encounter even colder water along the forecast track, and global model guidance suggests it should merge with the frontal system between 12-24 h. This combination should cause Pablo to weaken and become an extratropical cyclone. Thereafter, the system should be absorbed by the much larger low to its west between 48-72 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 42.8N 18.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 45.3N 17.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 46.9N 17.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 29/0000Z 47.9N 18.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 29/1200Z 49.5N 20.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
pablo
forecast
Tropical Storm Pablo Forecast Discussion Number 7
2019-10-27 09:32:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Oct 27 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 270832 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Pablo Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 500 AM AST Sun Oct 27 2019 Microwave satellite imagery indicates that Pablo has maintained a small mid-level eye feature for at least the past 18 hours, and the eye has also been evident in infrared imagery for the past 6 hours. The most recent Dvorak satellite intensity estimate was T3.0, which was held down due to constraints even though the eye pattern supports an intensity of 65 kt. Latest UW-CIMSS objective ADT and SATCON intensity estimates are T4.4/75 kt and 64 kt, respectively. Based on a blend of the TAFB and UW-CIMSS values, along with the 5- to 8-nmi-diameter eye, the intensity has been increased to 60 kt, which could be conservative due to the the cyclone's relatively fast forward speed. Pablo has continued to accelerate and the initial motion estimate is now 045/35 kt. The latest model guidance remains in good agreement that during the next 48 hours, Pablo should slow down while making a counter-clockwise track around the northeastern periphery of the larger extratropical low that the small cyclone is embedded within. The tightly packed guidance suite has shifted to the right of the previous advisory track, and the new NHC forecast track has been adjusted in that direction, close to the various consensus models. Pablo is currently located over 20 deg C sea-surface temperatures (SST), with colder water near 15 deg C ahead of the cyclone. Model forecast soundings indicate that mid- and upper-level temperatures will be warming, and when combined with the cooler SSTs, will result in stabilization of the troposphere. This will cause convection to steadily weaken and erode by 12 h, resulting in Pablo degenerating into a post-tropical extratropical low pressure system in 24 h, if not sooner. The small cyclone is forecast to dissipate or become absorbed by the larger parent extratropical low in the 48-72 h forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 40.7N 20.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 43.8N 17.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 46.2N 17.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 28/1800Z 46.9N 18.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 29/0600Z 48.3N 20.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Pablo Forecast Discussion Number 5
2019-10-26 22:31:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Oct 26 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 262031 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Pablo Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 500 PM AST Sat Oct 26 2019 Pablo has become a little better organized during the past several hours, with a small eye becoming somewhat better defined. However, the various satellite intensity estimates have remained near 45 kt. Based on the increased organization since the the 40-45 kt winds seen in earlier scatterometer data, the initial intensity is now set at 50 kt. Pablo has turned northeastward and accelerated, with the initial motion now 055/22. This motion should bring the small core of the storm near or over the eastern Azores during the next several hours. After that, the tropical storm should turn northward and eventually northwestward as a developing mid-latitude low to the west becomes the dominant steering mechanism. The guidance has shifted a bit to the east since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track is similar to, but east of, the previous forecast. Pablo should slow weaken as it moves into an environment of colder sea surface temperatures and increasing shear, and a developing frontal zone near the cyclone should lead to the system becoming extratropical by 36 h. The global models continue to forecast the system to merge with the mid-latitude low to the west between 48-72 h, so the intensity forecast again shows dissipation during that time. Given that Pablo is embedded within a large extratropical low, which itself is forecast to bring strong winds to the Azores, the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has included the effects of this small cyclone in their products. Those products already account for the strong winds and high waves expected in the Azores. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 36.3N 25.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 39.3N 22.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 42.7N 20.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 44.9N 20.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 28/1800Z 46.3N 21.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Pablo Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-10-26 16:40:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 26 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 261440 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Pablo Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 26 2019 Pablo has changed little in organization since the last advisory. The small cyclone is maintaining an area of banded convection near the center, and there have been occasional appearances of an eye-like feature. Recent scatterometer overpasses show several wind vectors of 40-45 kt, so the initial intensity is nudged upward to 45 kt. The initial motion is now 090/14, a little faster than before. Pablo is expected to turn northeastward during the next few hours, with the small core of the storm passing near or over the eastern Azores tonight. After that, the tropical storm should turn northward and eventually northwestward as it, as well as the surrounding larger low pressure area, become steered by another mid-latitude low pressure area developing over the north central Atlantic. The first 24 h of the new forecast track is adjusted somewhat to the east of the previous track based on the initial position and motion, with only small changes made thereafter. The new track lies near the various consensus models. Little significant change in strength is expected during the next 24 h or so while Pablo moves through an environment that is unstable enough to support deep convection. After that time, colder sea surface temperatures, increasing shear, and a developing frontal zone near the cyclone should lead to the system becoming extratropical. The global models continue to forecast the system to merge with the mid-latitude low to the west between 48-72 h, so the intensity forecast shows dissipation during that time. Given that Pablo is embedded within a large extratropical low, which itself is forecast to bring strong winds to the Azores, the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has included the effects of this small cyclone in their products. Those products already account for the strong winds and high waves expected in the Azores. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 35.2N 28.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 37.4N 25.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 40.8N 22.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 43.5N 21.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 28/1200Z 45.3N 21.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Pablo Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-10-26 10:37:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 26 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 260837 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Pablo Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 500 AM AST Sat Oct 26 2019 Pablo remains a small cyclone, and recently the eye-like feature that was noted in earlier satellite images is no longer evident. Since the system continues to have an area of deep convection concentrated near the center, it should still be classified as a tropical cyclone. The current intensity is held at 40 kt, in general agreement with the most recent estimate from TAFB, and pending a new scatterometer overpass. Pablo is embedded within a much larger cyclonic circulation that is also producing gale-force winds well to the north and northwest of the center. The tropical storm is moving a little south of east at around 8 kt. A turn toward the northeast and north is expected over the next couple of days as Pablo moves around the periphery of a large deep-layer trough over the eastern Atlantic The official forecast is a little faster than the previous one but slightly slower than the latest corrected dynamical model consensus. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so while Pablo moves through an environment that is unstable enough to support deep convection. However, by 36 hours the cyclone will be passing over waters of 18 deg C or colder. This should result in the system becoming an extratropical low around that time. In 2-3 days, the global models show the post-tropical low merging with a larger low over the north Atlantic. Given that Pablo is embedded within a large extratropical low, which itself is forecast to bring strong winds to the Azores, the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has included the effects of this small cyclone in their products. Those products already account for the strong winds and high waves expected in the Azores. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 35.3N 30.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 36.6N 27.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 39.5N 23.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 43.0N 21.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 28/0600Z 45.3N 21.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 29/0600Z 47.5N 22.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Sites : [308] [309] [310] [311] [312] [313] [314] [315] [316] [317] [318] [319] [320] [321] [322] [323] [324] [325] [326] [327] next »