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Tropical Depression Twenty-six Graphics
2020-10-05 13:08:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Oct 2020 11:08:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Oct 2020 11:08:04 GMT
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Tropical Depression Twenty-six Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-10-05 10:56:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 088 WTNT41 KNHC 050856 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Twenty-Six Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 500 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 Deep convection has been steadily improving in both vertical depth and structure, with the cloud pattern becoming more circular with upper-level outflow now having become established in all quadrants. However, there are still some indications in satellite imagery that the low-level and the mid-/upper-level circulations are not yet vertically aligned, with the low-level center still located just inside the northern edge of the convective cloud shield. For now, the initial intensity remains at 30 kt based on Dvorak satellite classifications from TAFB and SAB and also UW-CIMSS ADT. However, SATCON estimates suggest that the cyclone is close to tropical storm status. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 290/08 kt. Even after maintaining some continuity with the previous forecast, the initial position had to be adjusted a little farther to the south and west based on satellite animation, and the current position may have to be adjusted farther south on the next forecast cycle due to possible redevelopment of the center into the deep convective cloud mass. Otherwise, the previous forecast track reasoning remains essentially unchanged. The cyclone is expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward along the southern side of a deep-layer ridge for the next few days. By day 4 and beyond, a broad mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to develop across northern Mexico and Texas, which is expected to create a break in the ridge and turn the cyclone northward toward the north-central Gulf coast. The steering flow pattern becomes a little complex on days 2-3 due to expected binary interaction with Tropical Storm Gamma or its remnants, which could result in a sharp westward jog, after which a sharp turn back toward the northwest could occur. However, the latest NHC model guidance is in fairly good agreement that the cyclone will make a sharp northward turn between 90W-92W longitude around 96 hours or so. Thereafter, acceleration toward the north-northeast or northeast ahead of the approaching trough and frontal system is anticipated. The new NHC forecast track is a little to the left of the previous track through 72 hours, mainly to account for the more westward initial position, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed model guidance envelope. The northeasterly deep-layer vertical wind shear that has been plaguing the cyclone is finally showing signs of abating. The GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS model guidance shows the shear decreasing to near zero in the 24-48 hour period, which allow for some robust intensification to occur, assuming that the inner-core wind field becomes better defined later today. By 96 hours and beyond, the SHIPS models are forecasting the shear to increase 20-30 kt from the southwest, which would be expected to induce rapid weakening. However, the SHIPS models appear to be creating too much shear over the cyclone's center by incorporating jetstream winds of about 60 kt across Texas, whereas the 200-mb model fields only show winds of 10-15 kt over the center by 96 hours. As a result, the new intensity forecast calls for the cyclone to reach its peak intensity in the 72-96 hour period, followed by weakening due to likely cold upwelling of shallow cool shelf waters offshore the southwest coast of Louisiana and Mississippi. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies near the upper end of the intensity guidance, similar to the corrected-consensus model HCCA. Users are reminded that the average 4- and 5-day NHC track forecast errors are about 160 to 200 miles at those time periods, respectively. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands beginning late today, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 2. Dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are possible in portions of western Cuba and the Isle of Youth by Tuesday afternoon, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect. 3. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba during the next few days. This rainfall could lead to significant flash flooding and mudslides. 4. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts at these time ranges, there is a risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of the system and check for updates to the forecast during the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 17.0N 78.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 17.4N 79.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 18.6N 80.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 20.5N 83.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 22.5N 85.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 07/1800Z 24.4N 88.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 25.9N 90.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 28.0N 91.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 32.4N 88.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Twenty-six Graphics
2020-10-05 10:54:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Oct 2020 08:54:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Oct 2020 08:54:39 GMT
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Tropical Depression Twenty-six Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-10-05 10:49:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 050849 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 0900 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 9(11) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 11(19) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) 9(20) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 16(25) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 22(28) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) BIRMINGHAM AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 25(32) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 25(34) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 11(28) 13(41) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 29(42) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 29(47) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) 30(50) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 22(31) 24(55) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 16(26) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 43(44) 15(59) 10(69) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 9(22) 8(30) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 6(16) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 25(33) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) 28(55) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 17(26) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 28(67) 11(78) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 22(36) 10(46) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) 5(25) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 24(48) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 24(32) 23(55) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 14(26) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 15(29) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 18(41) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 11(20) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 22(27) 18(45) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 11(22) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 33(52) 7(59) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) 5(28) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 3(16) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 12(25) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 13(31) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 24(32) 9(41) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 5(16) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 9(19) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 7(19) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 9(25) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 4(25) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 17(23) 3(26) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 6(21) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 2(13) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 5(19) X(19) X(19) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 18(18) 55(73) 4(77) X(77) X(77) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 38(40) 4(44) X(44) X(44) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) HAVANA 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) 13(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) HAVANA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 2( 2) 49(51) 10(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND CAYMAN 34 1 32(33) 37(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X 4( 4) 15(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTEGO BAY 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) 24(41) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 18(28) 25(53) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty-six (AT1/AL262020)
2020-10-05 10:49:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 the center of Twenty-six was located near 17.0, -78.2 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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