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Tropical Depression Twenty-Six Graphics
2020-10-05 04:36:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Oct 2020 02:36:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Oct 2020 03:33:15 GMT
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Six Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-10-05 04:34:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 050234 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Twenty-Six Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2020 Satellite data indicate that the disturbance just south of Jamaica has become better organized this evening. Microwave and shortwave infrared images indicate that the center is now well defined, and deep convection has been persisting near and to the south of the center. Based on this data, the system now meets the criteria to be considered a tropical depression. The initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory. The depression is currently moving west-northwestward at 8 kt on the southern side of an Atlantic subtropical ridge. A continued west-northwest to northwest motion at about the same forward speed is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours, taking the system across the Cayman Islands and toward western Cuba. Around the time the depression is expected to be near western Cuba, the models show it accelerating northwestward as it moves in the faster flow between the ridge and Tropical Storm Gamma. This motion should bring the tropical cyclone into the southern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Later on, a notable slow down and a turn to the north is forecast to occur late in the week when the depression will likely be approaching the northern Gulf coast. This change in the forecast motion is a result of the ridge weakening and a trough approaching the cyclone from the west. The models are in relatively good agreement, which is surprising since they often diverge for weak systems, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. There is currently some northeasterly shear affecting the depression, but the models all show the shear lessening by tomorrow and remaining fairly light for the next few days. These improving upper-level wind conditions combined with a moist air mass and warm waters should allow for at least steady strengthening during the next few days. By late in the week, when the storm is forecast to approach the U.S. Gulf coast, there could be an increase in southerly or southwesterly shear, which could limit additional strengthening by that time. The NHC intensity forecast lies fairly close to the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids, and shows the depression becoming a hurricane near western Cuba with additional strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico. Users are reminded that the average 4- and 5-day NHC track forecast errors are about 160 to 200 miles at those time periods, respectively. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands beginning late Monday, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 2. Dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are possible in portions of western Cuba and the Isle of Youth by Tuesday afternoon, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect. 3. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba during the next few days and could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 4. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts at these time ranges, there is a risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of the system and check for updates to the forecast during the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 17.0N 77.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 17.4N 78.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 18.3N 79.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 20.0N 81.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 22.2N 84.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 24.1N 87.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 25.4N 88.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 27.2N 90.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 10/0000Z 30.0N 89.9W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty-Six (AT1/AL262020)
2020-10-05 04:33:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 the center of Twenty-Six was located near 17.0, -77.3 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Six Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-10-05 04:33:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 050233 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 0300 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 6(18) X(18) X(18) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) 2(11) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 9(18) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) 8(22) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 12(22) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 15(21) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 17(24) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 18(26) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 13(29) 14(43) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 22(32) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 24(38) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 25(41) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) 24(48) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 14(22) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 23(57) 13(70) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 14(23) 11(34) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 7(19) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 25(44) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 33(56) 16(72) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) 14(41) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 9(22) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 22(38) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 23(43) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 16(24) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 20(35) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 20(36) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 27(35) 12(47) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 7(20) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 12(19) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 13(24) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 14(33) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 11(19) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 9(20) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 7(19) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 2(13) X(13) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 41(43) 16(59) 1(60) X(60) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 11(27) 1(28) X(28) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 30(34) 5(39) X(39) X(39) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 1( 1) 19(20) 40(60) 3(63) X(63) X(63) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 5( 5) 43(48) 3(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTEGO BAY 34 6 7(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 1(14) X(14) KINGSTON 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 19(35) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) 24(46) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Six Public Advisory Number 2
2020-10-05 04:33:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 050233 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-Six Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2020 ...DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 77.3W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa * Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuba province of La Habana A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-Six was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 77.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion should continue for the next day or so. A faster northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to pass just south of Jamaica through early Monday, move near or over the Cayman Islands Monday night, and approach the Isle of Youth and western Cuba Tuesday afternoon or evening. The system is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days and the system is forecast to be a tropical storm when it nears the Cayman Islands on Monday, and a hurricane when it moves near or over western Cuba on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Twenty-Six can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and along the south coast of western Cuba near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. RAINFALL: Through midweek, this system is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across Jamaica and western Cuba. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Over the Cayman Islands, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall will be possible with this system. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands beginning late Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba by early Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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