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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Advisory Number 15

2020-09-21 10:40:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 210840 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS...TEXAS TO ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE...LOUISIANA...INCLUDING COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...MATAGORDA BAY... GALVESTON BAY...SABINE LAKE...AND LAKE CALCASIEU A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 95.1W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 0SE 40SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 95.1W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 94.8W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 28.0N 96.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 0SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 28.4N 96.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 28.7N 96.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 28.9N 95.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.4N 94.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 30.2N 93.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 32.8N 90.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.7N 95.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm Beta Graphics

2020-09-21 07:32:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2020 05:32:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2020 03:33:14 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm Beta (AT2/AL222020)

2020-09-21 07:32:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...BETA EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST LATER THIS MORNING... As of 1:00 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 the center of Beta was located near 27.6, -94.8 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm Beta Public Advisory Number 14A

2020-09-21 07:32:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 210532 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beta Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 100 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020 ...BETA EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST LATER THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 94.8W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM ESE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM S OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas, Texas to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana, including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Lake Calcasieu A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas Texas to Morgan City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Texas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 94.8 West. Beta is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue for the next day or so. A decrease in forward speed and a sharp turn to the north and northeast is expected Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will continue to move toward the central coast of Texas and will likely move inland by Monday night. Beta is forecast to remain close to the coast of southeastern Texas on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before Beta reaches the Texas coast. Weakening is anticipated once Beta moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure estimated based on data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... San Luis Pass, TX to Sabine Pass, TX including Galveston Bay...3-5 ft Port Aransas, TX to San Luis Pass, TX including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay...2-4 ft Sabine Pass, TX to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA including Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft Baffin Bay, TX to Port Aransas, TX including Corpus Christi Bay and Baffin Bay... 1-3 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the tropical storm warning area along the southwestern Louisiana coast and will spread westward to the warning areas in Texas later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the south Texas coast later today. RAINFALL: Through Friday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated totals of 15 inches from the middle Texas coast to southern Louisiana. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are expected northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as minor to isolated moderate river flooding. TORNADOES: A tornado or two could occur today near the middle-to-upper Texas coast or the southwestern Louisiana coast. SURF: Swells generated by a combination of Beta and cold front over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue along the coasts of Louisiana and Texas during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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