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Tropical Storm Beta Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-09-21 22:44:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2020 20:44:26 GMT
Tropical Storm Beta Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-09-21 22:44:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2020 20:44:26 GMT
Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Discussion Number 17
2020-09-21 22:42:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 212042 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 400 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020 Beta's convective cloud structure has continued to erode since the previous advisory as cold-air stratocumulus clouds have wrapped around the entire and into the system center. Most of the cloud tops are barely reaching the freezing level, with the exception of a small convective burst that has recently developed near and to the northwest of the low-level center. The initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt and is based on data from the last Air Force Reserve reconnaissance leg that indicated peak SFMR surface winds of 40-42 kt northwest of the center and a dropsonde-measured central pressure of 999-1000 mb. The initial motion estimate 310/04 kt. Beta is expected to move onshore the central Texas coast later tonight, and then stalling along or just inland from the coast during the 12-24 hour period when the steering currents collapse due to a complete break down of a weak ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. A weak trough to the west of the cyclone is then forecast to nudge Beta east-northeastward toward the Gulf of Mexico in the 36-60 hour period, with the cyclone possibly reaching the warm Gulf waters by 48 hours. By 72 hours and beyond, the approaching mid-level trough Beta is expected to move Beta a little faster toward the northeast until the cyclone dissipates over the Lower Mississippi Valley area by day 5. The latest NHC track guidance has shifted a little farther to right or east of the previous forecast track, with most of the models now taking Beta back out over the western Gulf of Mexico by 24 hours. As a result, the new NHC official track forecast has been nudged a little farther to the right of the previous, but remains to the left or west of the NOAA-HCCA consensus model and the UKMET model. West-southwesterly wind shear of 15-20 kt is expected to affect Beta for the next 36 hours or so, followed by a gradual increase in the shear thereafter. That unfavorable flow regime, along with land interaction, should induce a slow weakening trend throughout the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast remains a little above the available model guidance through 48 hours since Beta is forecast to remain very close to or over the Gulf of Mexico where convective rain bands containing tropical-storm-force winds could possibly move onshore the central and upper Texas coastal areas. Key Messages: 1. The expected slow motion of Beta will produce a long duration rainfall event from the middle Texas coast to southeast Louisiana. Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is likely. Rainfall will also spread northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower Mississippi Valley and portions of the Southeast through the end of the week. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is possible. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge near times of high tide through Tuesday along portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts within the storm surge warning areas. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 3. Tropical-storm-force winds will spread westward across the Texas coast later this evening and continue into Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 28.2N 96.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 28.5N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 22/1800Z 28.7N 96.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/0600Z 28.9N 95.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR TEXAS COAST 48H 23/1800Z 29.2N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 24/0600Z 29.7N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 24/1800Z 30.8N 91.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 96H 25/1800Z 34.1N 88.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Beta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2020-09-21 22:42:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 21 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 212042 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 2100 UTC MON SEP 21 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FORT POLK LA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) CAMERON LA 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) JASPER TX 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KOUNTZE TX 34 4 3( 7) 5(12) 1(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 3 3( 6) 6(12) 2(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) GALVESTON TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOUSTON TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HOUSTON TX 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUSTIN TX 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FREEPORT TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FREEPORT TX 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MATAGORDA TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MATAGORDA TX 50 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PORT O CONNOR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PORT O CONNOR 50 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ROCKPORT TX 34 31 9(40) 4(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 9 6(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) GFMX 270N 960W 34 3 4( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm Beta (AT2/AL222020)
2020-09-21 22:42:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SLOW-MOVING BETA GETTING CLOSER TO THE TEXAS COAST... ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL TEXAS COASTAL AREA... As of 4:00 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 the center of Beta was located near 28.2, -96.1 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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