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Tropical Storm Beta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-09-19 17:42:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 191541 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 1500 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) STENNIS MS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) BURAS LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) GFMX 280N 890W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 3(10) 4(14) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 4( 8) 6(14) GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 6(12) 6(18) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 5(13) 7(20) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 8(17) 5(22) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) 7(18) 7(25) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 5(11) 7(18) 7(25) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 34 78 11(89) 2(91) 1(92) 1(93) X(93) 1(94) GFMX 280N 930W 50 10 11(21) 4(25) 1(26) 1(27) 3(30) 2(32) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 4(16) FORT POLK LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 7(13) 9(22) 5(27) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 9(18) 10(28) 6(34) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CAMERON LA 34 4 13(17) 14(31) 6(37) 8(45) 7(52) 5(57) CAMERON LA 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) 5(16) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) JASPER TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 10(17) 10(27) 5(32) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 13(25) 10(35) 5(40) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 6(15) 12(27) 12(39) 5(44) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) GALVESTON TX 34 3 18(21) 27(48) 11(59) 7(66) 4(70) 2(72) GALVESTON TX 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) 6(19) 5(24) 3(27) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) HOUSTON TX 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 13(24) 15(39) 9(48) 3(51) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 5(14) 2(16) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) AUSTIN TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 15(21) 7(28) 1(29) AUSTIN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 12(18) 7(25) 1(26) SAN ANTONIO TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) FREEPORT TX 34 X 5( 5) 25(30) 17(47) 11(58) 4(62) 2(64) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 7(18) 4(22) 2(24) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 9 40(49) 28(77) 6(83) 4(87) 1(88) 1(89) GFMX 280N 950W 50 1 9(10) 28(38) 10(48) 5(53) 1(54) 2(56) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) 4(19) X(19) 2(21) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 1 3( 4) 13(17) 9(26) 11(37) 9(46) 4(50) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 5(12) 3(15) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MATAGORDA TX 34 2 14(16) 32(48) 17(65) 8(73) 3(76) 2(78) MATAGORDA TX 50 X 1( 1) 9(10) 16(26) 9(35) 3(38) 2(40) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) 2(14) X(14) PORT O CONNOR 34 1 11(12) 31(43) 19(62) 10(72) 4(76) 2(78) PORT O CONNOR 50 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 16(25) 11(36) 4(40) 1(41) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 1(13) 1(14) ROCKPORT TX 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 17(30) 17(47) 8(55) 1(56) ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 4(19) X(19) ROCKPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 12(19) 18(37) 8(45) 1(46) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 3(13) 1(14) CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 2 17(19) 28(47) 12(59) 11(70) 3(73) 1(74) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X 2( 2) 10(12) 11(23) 9(32) 4(36) 1(37) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 1(13) 1(14) MCALLEN TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 6(18) 1(19) MCALLEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HARLINGEN TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 11(17) 6(23) 1(24) HARLINGEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 10(16) 6(22) X(22) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 6(15) 9(24) 4(28) 1(29) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) KEESLER AB 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Beta Graphics
2020-09-19 17:40:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 15:40:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 15:33:27 GMT
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Tropical Storm Beta Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2020-09-19 17:40:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 15:40:40 GMT
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Tropical Storm Beta Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2020-09-19 17:40:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 15:40:40 GMT
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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-09-19 17:38:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 191538 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 8...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 1000 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 Corrected 96 and 120 h intensities Morning visible imagery indicates that Beta has become significantly sheared, with the low-level center mostly exposed well to the southwest of the main convective area. A new convective band is currently forming near the center over the northwestern quadrant. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported pressures near 994-995 mb, along with flight-level and SFMR winds that justify keeping the initial intensity at 50 kt. The storm appears to be starting its westward turn, and the initial motion is now 315/3. The mid- to upper-level trough over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is lifting out, with a mid-level ridge building to the north of Beta. This should cause the storm to turn more westward during the next 6-12 h. After that, a slow west- northwestward to northwestward motion should develop, with the center now forecast to be near or over the middle Texas coast in about 72 h. Beyond 72 h, another mid-latitude trough moving through the central United States should cause Beta to recurve slowly to the northeast. The new NHC forecast is shifted a little to the west and now explicitly shows landfall on the Texas coast in about 72 h. This new forecast is a little to the north of the consensus models through 72 h and close to them after that time. There are lots of uncertainties in the intensity forecast. First, the global models suggest that the ongoing southwesterly shear may not subside that much even though the first trough is lifting out. Second, GOES-16 air mass imagery shows abundant upper-level dry air over the western Gulf of Mexico, including near the storm center. Third, surface observations show a drier low-level airmass in place over southeastern Texas, and some of this may get entrained into the storm. The intensity guidance has trended downward to the point where none of the models are currently forecasting Beta to become a hurricane. Based on this and the current storm structure, the intensity forecast has been adjusted to show little change in strength today, followed by slow strengthening to a hurricane by 48-60 h. However, this forecast is well above the guidance, and additional downward adjustments may be needed later today. A Tropical Storm Warning is being issued for parts of the Texas and Louisiana coasts at this time. A Hurricane Warning could still be issued later today or tonight depending on later intensity forecasts. Key Messages: 1. The expected slow motion of Beta has the potential to produce a long duration rainfall event along the western Gulf Coast. The potentially prolonged period of rainfall could cause flash, urban, and river flooding, especially where tide levels are above normal. 2. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds are possible along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, with tropical storm conditions expected by late this weekend. Storm Surge and Hurricane watches and Tropical Storm warnings are in effect, and residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 26.6N 92.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 26.9N 93.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 27.1N 93.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 27.5N 94.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 27.8N 95.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 28.2N 96.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 28.6N 96.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 96H 23/1200Z 29.5N 95.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 24/1200Z 30.5N 93.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
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