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Tropical Depression Eighteen Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-09-07 10:52:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020 369 WTNT43 KNHC 070852 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 800 AM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020 Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the area of low pressure over the far eastern Atlantic has continued to increase and become organized in a band overnight. First light visible satellite imagery suggests that the circulation has also become better defined. Based on the above, advisories are being initiated on a new tropical depression, the eighteenth of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. Dvorak satellite estimates from both TAFB and SAB support an intensity of 25 kt, but given the continued improvement in organization the initial winds are set at 30 kt for this advisory. ASCAT data later this morning should provide additional information on the intensity of the cyclone. The depression lies within a favorable upper-level environment and the SHIPS guidance indicates that the vertical wind shear will remain 10 kt or less over the next few days while the depression traverses sea surface temperatures of around 27 degrees Celsius. These conditions, along with a moist mid-level atmosphere should allow for steady strengthening over the next few days, and the NHC forecast calls for the system to become a tropical storm later today, and a hurricane in about 72 hours. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to pass over slightly cooler waters and the global models depict an increase in southwesterly upper-level flow over the system by the end of the period. These less conducive factors are expected to slow the intensification process toward the end of the period. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the IVCN multi-model consensus and the HFIP corrected consensus. The initial motion of the depression is a somewhat uncertain 280/10 kt. A narrow mid-level ridge to the north of the depression is forecast to build westward over the next few days which is expected to steer the system westward to west-northwestward, and the track guidance is in good agreement through 72 hours. After that time, a weakness is forecast to develop in the ridge near 40 degrees west, and the cyclone is expected to turn west-northwestward and then northwestward between the ridge to its northeast and Tropical Depression Seventeen to its southwest. Since there could be some binary interaction between the two tropical cyclones later in the period, the longer range track guidance is not in as good of agreement, and there is more uncertainty than average in the long-range track forecast. Key Messages: 1. The depression is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm later today and tropical storm conditions are expected to spread over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for those islands. 2. The depression is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Tuesday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 15.2N 20.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 15.6N 22.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 16.0N 24.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 16.4N 27.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 16.8N 30.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 17.4N 32.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 18.1N 35.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 19.7N 39.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 22.4N 43.2W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Eighteen Graphics
2020-09-07 10:51:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 07 Sep 2020 08:51:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 07 Sep 2020 09:31:37 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eighteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-09-07 10:44:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 070844 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 0900 UTC MON SEP 07 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 20.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT RIBIERA GRANDE 34 X 14(14) 18(32) X(32) X(32) 1(33) X(33) RIBIERA GRANDE 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PRAIA CVI 34 1 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SANTA MARIA CV 34 6 23(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) SANTA MARIA CV 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eighteen (AT3/AL182020)
2020-09-07 10:44:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS... As of 8:00 AM CVT Mon Sep 7 the center of Eighteen was located near 15.2, -20.3 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eighteen Public Advisory Number 1
2020-09-07 10:44:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 070844 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eighteen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 800 AM CVT Mon Sep 07 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM CVT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 20.3W ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM ESE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of the Cabo Verde Islands has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for all of the Cabo Verde Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Verde Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM CVT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 20.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is forecast to pass near or over the Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Tuesday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over the eastern portions of the Cabo Verde Islands later today and spread westward across the remainder of those islands tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM CVT. Next complete advisory at 200 PM CVT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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