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Hurricane KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 8
2014-08-14 22:46:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU AUG 14 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 142046 TCDEP1 HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 PM PDT THU AUG 14 2014 Despite moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear, Karina has managed to develop a closed mid-level eye with a diameter of around 10-12 nmi since the previous advisory as noted in recent SSMI/S and AMSU microwave imagery. Visible satellite imagery also indicates that a cloud-filled eye has appeared in the middle of the nearly circular CDO during past hour or so. Satellite intensity estimates are a consensus T4.0/65 kt, and ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT have been steady at T4.4/75 kt for the past couple of hours. As a result of these data, the intensity has been increased to 65 kt. The initial motion estimate is 270/13 kt, which is based primarily on passive microwave satellite position fixes. Karina's apparent westward acceleration is likely due to the low-level center moving or reforming underneath the well-defined mid-level eye. As a result, this westward jog is expected to be a temporary motion, and Karina should slow down somewhat in the near-term. Otherwise, the hurricane is expected to remain on a basic westward track for the next 4 days as Karina is steered by a deep-layer ridge to its north. Afterwards, the cyclone is expected to slow down significantly and make a turn toward the west-southwest or southwest as Karina begins to interact with possible multiple tropical cyclones developing in the central Pacific and eastern Pacific basins. As mentioned in the previous discussion, rather than committing to any one particular model solution this far out in time, the NHC track forecast instead just shows a significant slow down in Karina's motion. The official forecast track is just an extension of the previous advisory track, and lies south of the consensus model TVCE, near the extreme southern edge of the NHC guidance envelope. The GFS-based SHIPS model indicates that the vertical shear is expected to increase to near 20 kt during the 12-24 hour period, while the shear vector veers around to the east. Given the well-defined and small eye mentioned previously, some additional strengthening is expected while Karina remains in favorable thermodynamic and oceanic environments. By 36 hours and beyond, the shear is forecast to decrease significantly, but this will occur when the cyclone is moving over marginal SSTs. The result is that a general leveling off of the intensity is expected, although there could obviously be some fluctuations in the intensity due to internal eyewall dynamics that can not be forecast this far in advance. The official intensity forecast remains well above the consensus model ICON due to the persistent weakening of Karina shown by the GFDL and HWRF models thus far, and instead follows the trend of the SHIPS and LGEM models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 17.1N 117.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 17.4N 119.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 17.8N 121.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 18.1N 123.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 18.2N 125.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 18.1N 129.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 17.7N 132.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 17.6N 134.2W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane KARINA Forecast Advisory Number 8
2014-08-14 22:46:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 14 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 142045 TCMEP1 HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 2100 UTC THU AUG 14 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 117.6W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 117.6W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 116.9W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.4N 119.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.8N 121.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.1N 123.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.2N 125.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 18.1N 129.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 17.7N 132.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 17.6N 134.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 117.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm KARINA Graphics
2014-08-14 17:13:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Aug 2014 14:51:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Aug 2014 15:05:29 GMT
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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 7
2014-08-14 16:47:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU AUG 14 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 141447 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 AM PDT THU AUG 14 2014 Deep convection has continued to increase and expand into a large canopy of cloud tops of -80C to -85C. Passive microwave satellite fixes indicate that the low-level center is located farther into the northeastern portion of the convective cloud shield and that a mid-level eye feature has developed closer to the center of the cloud mass. However, the mid-level eye is displaced or tilted at least 15-20 nmi southwest of the low-level center due to modest northeasterly shear impinging on the cyclone. Despite the shear conditions, satellite intensity estimate from TAFB and SAB are a consensus T3.5/55 kt, and estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT and AMSU are 57 kt and 55 kt, respectively. Based on these data, the initial intensity estimate is raised to 55 kt. The initial motion estimate is 270/09 kt and is based primarily on microwave satellite position fixes over the past 9 hours. The forecast track and reasoning remain unchanged over the past 24 hours with Karina expected to move in a general westward direction during the forecast period due to the presence of a strong subtropical ridge located to the north of the cyclone. By Day 5, however, the forecast become a little murky due to several models developing multiple tropical cyclones in the central Pacific and eastern Pacific basins that begin to interact with Karina in some form or fashion. Rather than committing to any one particular solution, the NHC track forecast just shows a significant slow down in Karina's motion. The official forecast track has been nudged slightly south of the previous advisory track and lies close to the consensus model TVCE, except at 120 hours due to the expected slower forward speed. Northeasterly shear of 10 to 15 kt has been affecting Karina during the past 12 hours or so, and the shear is expected to increase slightly over the next 24 hours. However, other environmental and oceanic conditions are expected to be favorable for additional strengthening to occur, so the NHC intensity forecast still calls for steady strengthening through the next 36 hours or so, followed by a leveling off of the intensity due to the cyclone moving over marginal SSTs near 26C and into a more stable air mass. The official intensity forecast is essentially just an update of the previous forecast, and remains above all of the available intensity guidance but follows the development trend in the SHIPS model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 17.2N 115.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 17.4N 117.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 17.6N 119.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 17.9N 122.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 18.1N 124.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 18.2N 128.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 17.9N 131.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 17.8N 133.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm KARINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2014-08-14 16:46:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 14 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 141446 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 1500 UTC THU AUG 14 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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