je.st
news
Tag: karina
Tropical Storm Karina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2020-09-15 16:33:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 151432 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 1500 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 125W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-09-15 16:32:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 151432 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 1500 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 121.1W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 120SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 121.1W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 120.7W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 21.3N 122.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.4N 123.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 23.3N 125.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 23.7N 126.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 23.9N 127.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 23.5N 128.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 22.6N 130.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 121.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm Karina Graphics
2020-09-15 10:32:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 15 Sep 2020 08:32:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 15 Sep 2020 08:32:45 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
tropical storm
Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-09-15 10:32:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 150832 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 Karina has continued to become a little better organized tonight with a concentrated area of deep convection near and over the estimated low-level center. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from 45 to 55 kt, and the initial wind speed is nudged up to 50 kt based on that data. Karina is approaching the 26 C isotherm, and it should be moving over progressively cooler waters during the next several days. These less favorable oceanic conditions combined with a drier and more stable air mass should promote gradual weakening beginning by tonight, and Karina is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low in about 60 hours. In addition to the cool waters and dry air, an increase in southerly shear should cause the remnant low to dissipate in 4 to 5 days. The intensity guidance is in good agreement, and the NHC forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope. The tropical storm is moving northwestward at 10 kt. A continued northwestward motion on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge is expected for the next couple of days. After that time, a turn to the west and a decrease in forward speed are forecast as the weak and shallow system moves in the low-level flow. The initial 34-kt wind radii have been reduced based on partial ASCAT overpasses. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 19.8N 120.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 20.8N 121.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 22.0N 123.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 23.0N 124.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 23.7N 125.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 17/1800Z 24.0N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0600Z 23.9N 127.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0600Z 23.1N 129.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Karina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2020-09-15 10:32:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 150832 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 120W 50 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 125W 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 25N 125W 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 5(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Sites : [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] next »