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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-09-14 22:55:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 142055 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 The morning visible images showed Karina's partially obscured low level center under the northeast edge of the cyclone's deep convection. The displacement of the center is due to the ongoing presence of moderate vertical wind shear from the northeast. Cloud top temperatures have generally warmed through most of the morning, though the latest images showed a small burst of deep convection south of the center. An ASCAT pass this morning showed a large swath of 35 kt winds in the southeastern semicircle of Karina's circulation. The initial wind radii have been increased to account for the updated data. Dvorak fixes came in at 35 kt from SAB, and 45 kt from TAFB and PHFO. ASCAT peak winds were 37 kt. Based on a blend of these data, and little change in Karina's appearance in satellite imagery, the initial intensity will be held at 40 kt for this advisory. Moderate shear is expected to continue to affect Karina for another 24 hours. The shear will become weak from 36 to 72 hours, but by then the cyclone is expected to be over sub-26 degree C sea surface temperatures. Most of the objective aids indicate that peak intensity has been reached, and gradual weakening will occur after 24 hours. The intensity forecast closely follows HCCA, and has Karina becoming a post-tropical remnant low by 96 hours, if not sooner. This forecast trend keeps the intensity higher than the statistical guidance. The initial motion for this package is 305/9 kt. Karina is expected to continue moving northwestward to the southwest of a mid-level anticyclone. This motion is expected to continue through 60 to 72 hours. Karina should turn toward the southwest as deep convection ceases and the cyclone becomes steered by the low level flow. The forecast track has been adjusted a bit northward from the previous forecast, in part due to an adjustment in the initial position, and closely follows the HCCA guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 18.5N 118.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 19.4N 119.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 20.8N 121.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 21.9N 122.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 23.0N 124.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 23.7N 125.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 24.0N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 23.5N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kodama
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Tropical Storm Karina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-09-14 22:49:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 142049 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 26 49(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) 20N 120W 50 2 11(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 20N 120W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER KODAMA
Summary for Tropical Storm Karina (EP1/EP162020)
2020-09-14 22:48:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KARINA AT PEAK INTENSITY OVER THE OPEN EAST PACIFIC WATERS... As of 2:00 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 the center of Karina was located near 18.5, -118.8 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Karina Public Advisory Number 8
2020-09-14 22:48:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 142048 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 ...KARINA AT PEAK INTENSITY OVER THE OPEN EAST PACIFIC WATERS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 118.8W ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 118.8 West. Karina is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected over the next 24 hours, with gradual weakening expected thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kodama
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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-09-14 22:46:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 142046 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 118.8W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 180SE 180SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 200SE 200SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 118.8W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 118.5W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.4N 119.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 150SE 150SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.8N 121.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 100SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.9N 122.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 23.0N 124.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 23.7N 125.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 24.0N 125.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 23.5N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 118.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KODAMA
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