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Tropical Storm Karina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-09-13 22:35:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 132035 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 2100 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 X 5( 5) 57(62) 7(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) 20N 120W 50 X 1( 1) 21(22) 5(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 2(12) 1(13) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-09-13 22:35:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 132035 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 2100 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 116.0W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 100SE 130SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 116.0W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 115.6W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.5N 117.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 90SE 120SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.1N 118.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 100SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.8N 120.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.5N 121.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.2N 122.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 21.9N 123.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 22.5N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 22.5N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 116.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Karina Graphics
2020-09-13 16:55:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 14:55:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 15:53:15 GMT
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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-09-13 16:53:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 131453 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020 Karina's center is a little bit closer to the deep convection this morning, resulting in intensity estimates increasing slightly. Based on Dvorak estimates of T3.0/45 kt and T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, respectively, and an overnight SATCON estimate of 42 kt, Karina's initial intensity is assumed to be 40 kt. The moderate northeasterly shear currently affecting the cyclone is not expected to change appreciably during the next few days. However, Karina will remain over ocean waters warmer than 26 degrees Celsius for the next 48 hours, which should allow for a gradual intensification trend during that period. The shear is forecast to lighten up in 3-4 days, but by then Karina will be over colder waters and in a drier, more stable environment, which should induce weakening. Karina is likely to lose all of its deep convection and become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is generally close to the HCCA aid and the IVCN intensity consensus and shows weakening starting a little sooner than before. Karina is moving toward the west-northwest (300/9 kt), south of a mid-level ridge axis which extends from northwestern Mexico southwestward over the Pacific. This ridge should keep Karina on this general heading with a very gradually decreasing forward speed through day 4. Once the cyclone weakens to a remnant low, it is expected to turn westward, steered by lower-level trade winds. No significant changes in the track forecast were required compared to the previous prediction, and the official forecast lies generally close to the multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 17.6N 114.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 18.3N 115.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 19.0N 117.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 19.7N 119.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 20.2N 120.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 16/0000Z 20.9N 121.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 21.7N 122.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 22.6N 125.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 22.8N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm Karina (EP1/EP162020)
2020-09-13 16:53:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KARINA A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 9:00 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 the center of Karina was located near 17.6, -114.7 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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