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Tropical Depression Karina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2020-09-16 22:33:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 162033 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 2100 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 125W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD
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Tropical Depression Karina Forecast Advisory Number 16
2020-09-16 22:33:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 162033 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 2100 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 124.6W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 124.6W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 124.2W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 23.5N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 23.9N 126.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 24.0N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.7N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 23.3N 130.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 124.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD
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Tropical Storm Karina Graphics
2020-09-16 16:37:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 14:37:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 15:53:01 GMT
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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-09-16 16:36:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 161436 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Very little deep convection with cloud tops of -40C remains this morning, and what's left is located well to the west-northwest of the center of circulation. There could still be a few 35-kt winds remaining in that particular area, which was identified earlier by a scatterometer pass, so the initial intensity is held at a generous 35 kt for this advisory. Karina is expected to continue traversing cooler waters while moving farther into an inhibiting thermodynamic environment and unfavorable upper-level winds. Therefore, weakening is forecast and Karina should degenerate to a remnant low tonight. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/7 kt. A turn back toward the west-northwest is expected later today and the cyclone should continue on this general motion through Thursday night. A westward turn is forecast on Friday as Karina degenerates to a remnant low and is steered by the low-level tradewind flow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 22.6N 123.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 23.2N 125.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 17/1200Z 23.8N 126.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/0000Z 24.0N 127.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1200Z 23.9N 128.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0000Z 23.6N 129.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Storm Karina (EP1/EP162020)
2020-09-16 16:36:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KARINA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 the center of Karina was located near 22.6, -123.9 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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