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Tropical Storm Karina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-09-14 04:31:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 140231 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 X 31(31) 29(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) 20N 120W 50 X 7( 7) 12(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) 20N 120W 64 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tropical Storm Karina Graphics
2020-09-13 22:37:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 20:37:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 20:37:17 GMT
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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-09-13 22:36:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 132036 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 A midday ASCAT pass revealed that Karina still has an elongated circulation and is likely still attached to the ITCZ/monsoon trough. The center is also displaced to the northeast of the deepest convection due to ongoing moderate northeasterly shear. The ASCAT data confirmed that the storm currently has maximum winds of 40 k, with most of the tropical-storm-force winds located over the southern semicircle. With the shear not expected to decrease from its current magnitude, only modest strengthening is expected during the next 36 hours or so while Karina remains over waters warmer than 26 degrees Celsius. The peak intensity shown in the official forecast has been adjusted downward to 50 kt, which is now the highest intensity shown by any of the intensity models. Colder waters and a drier, more stable atmosphere should induce gradual weakening after day 2, with Karina likely to lose all of its deep convection and become a remnant low by day 4. Karina turned a little bit to the left today but still has a west-northwestward heading (290/10 kt). A mid-level ridge located to the north should keep Karina on a west-northwestward trajectory with some reduction in forward speed through day 4. Once it weakens to a remnant low, Karina is expected to turn westward, steered by lower-level trade winds. There is some north-south divergence among the track models during Karina's expected remnant low stage, but the overall guidance envelope has not shifted. Therefore, the updated NHC track forecast is not too different from the previous one and lies close to the HCCA, Florida State Superensemble, and TVCE multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 17.8N 116.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 18.5N 117.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 19.1N 118.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 19.8N 120.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 20.5N 121.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 21.2N 122.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 21.9N 123.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 22.5N 126.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/1800Z 22.5N 128.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm Karina (EP1/EP162020)
2020-09-13 22:35:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KARINA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 the center of Karina was located near 17.8, -116.0 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Karina Public Advisory Number 4
2020-09-13 22:35:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 132035 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 ...KARINA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 116.0W ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 116.0 West. Karina is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast through late Monday or early Tuesday. Weakening is expected to begin later on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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