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Summary for Tropical Storm Karina (EP1/EP162020)
2020-09-15 10:31:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KARINA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Sep 15 the center of Karina was located near 19.8, -120.6 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Karina Public Advisory Number 10
2020-09-15 10:31:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 150831 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 ...KARINA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 120.6W ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 120.6 West. Karina is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but gradual weakening should begin tonight. Karina is forecast to become a remnant low in two or three days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-09-15 10:31:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 672 WTPZ21 KNHC 150831 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 120.6W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 150SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 120.6W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 120.2W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.8N 121.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 22.0N 123.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 23.0N 124.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 23.7N 125.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 24.0N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 23.9N 127.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 23.1N 129.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 120.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Karina Graphics
2020-09-15 04:45:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 15 Sep 2020 02:45:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 15 Sep 2020 02:45:22 GMT
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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-09-15 04:39:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 150239 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 Karina may not have reached its peak after all. The northeasterly vertical wind shear appears to have eased a bit, allowing the dense cirrus overcast from the central convection to fully obscure the low level cloud center. The cyclone also appears to be better organized than 24 hours ago. As a result, most of the Dvorak intensity estimates have increased, with ADT up to 39 kt, and PHFO and TAFB indicating 55 kt. SAB was unchanged from the 6 hours ago at 35 kt. Based on a blend of the estimates, the initial intensity for this advisory has been increased to 45 kt. The 12 ft seas radii have also been adjusted based on guidance from TAFB. Moderate shear should continue to affect Karina for another 12 to 24 hours. The shear is forecast to weaken after that, but by then the cyclone is expected to be over sub-26 degree C sea surface temperatures. There is still a narrow window for additional intensification, but most of the guidance holds the intensity for another 12 to 24 hours, with gradual weakening occurring afterward. The forecast holds Karina at 45 kt for 24 hours, followed by weakening to post-tropical remnant low status by 72 hours. This is close to the HCCA guidance. The initial motion for this advisory is 310/10 kt. Karina is forecast to continue moving northwestward to the southwest of a mid-level anticyclone. This motion is expected to continue through 60 to 72 hours. Karina should turn toward the southwest as deep convection ceases and the cyclone becomes steered by the low level flow. The objective guidance is tightly packed through around 60 hours, with variations occurring thereafter regarding when the southwestward turn will occur. The forecast track is close to the previous forecast and closely follows the consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 19.1N 119.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 20.0N 120.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 21.3N 122.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 22.4N 123.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 23.3N 124.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 17/1200Z 23.8N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 23.9N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0000Z 23.5N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kodama
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