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Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta Graphics
2018-06-19 04:32:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 19 Jun 2018 02:32:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 19 Jun 2018 03:23:18 GMT
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta (EP4/EP042018)
2018-06-19 04:31:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CARLOTTA DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW BUT STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 10:00 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 the center of Carlotta was located near 18.2, -103.6 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 25 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta Public Advisory Number 18
2018-06-19 04:31:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 190231 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018 ...CARLOTTA DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW BUT STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 103.6W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM W OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 103.6 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue tonight into Tuesday morning. On the forecast track, the center will be near or over the southwest coast of Mexico tonight and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast, and Carlotta is expected to dissipate on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Carlotta is forecast to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall along the Guerrero, Michoacan and Colima coasts, with isolated higher amounts of 10 inches possible. These rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. Elsewhere across the states of Guerrero and Michoacan, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts of 4 inches are forecast. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Carlotta. For additional information on the remnant low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2018-06-19 04:31:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 19 2018 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 190231 PWSEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042018 0300 UTC TUE JUN 19 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 KTS...25 MPH...35 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta Forecast Advisory Number 18
2018-06-19 04:31:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 19 2018 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 190231 TCMEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042018 0300 UTC TUE JUN 19 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 103.6W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 103.6W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 103.5W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.4N 104.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 103.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON CARLOTTA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW... PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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