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Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby Public Advisory Number 10
2018-08-09 22:37:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Aug 09 2018 389 WTNT34 KNHC 092036 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018 500 PM AST Thu Aug 09 2018 ...DEBBY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...LIKELY TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...45.5N 40.5W ABOUT 865 MI...1390 KM NW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby was located near latitude 45.5 North, longitude 40.5 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue for the next few hours until the cyclone dissipates later tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast until Debby dissipates later tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Debby. Additional information can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby Forecast Discussion Number 10
2018-08-09 22:37:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Aug 09 2018 388 WTNT44 KNHC 092036 TCDAT4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018 500 PM AST Thu Aug 09 2018 Debby has become post-tropical. The circulation of the cyclone has become ill defined, and it is no longer producing enough organized deep convection to be classified as a tropical cyclone. Therefore, Debby has become post-tropical, and this is the last advisory. The cyclone is accelerating northeastward ahead of a shortwave trough, and this should continue for the next few hours until Debby opens up into a trough of low pressure and merges with a larger frontal boundary later tonight. Debby is likely still producing gale-force winds to the southeast of its center, however all of the guidance indicates that these winds will gradually decrease through early tomorrow. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 45.5N 40.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2018-08-09 22:37:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 09 2018 393 FONT14 KNHC 092036 PWSAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042018 2100 UTC THU AUG 09 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Gilma Forecast Discussion Number 13
2018-07-29 22:52:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 29 2018 076 WTPZ43 KNHC 292052 TCDEP3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Gilma Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 29 2018 Gilma has lacked organized deep convection near the center for at least 12 hours now. Although there has been a cluster of thunderstorms lingering about 90 n mi southeast of the exposed center, this convection has been pulling away from the system and lacks sufficient organization necessary for a tropical cyclone. Therefore, this is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Gilma. Very strong west-northwesterly shear is expected to continue during the next few days. These hostile winds combined with marginal SSTs and dry air should cause the remnant low to degenerate into a trough in 36 to 48 hours. The remnant low is moving westward at 13 kt steered by the low-level flow on the south side of a ridge, and it should cross into the Central Pacific basin shortly. This general motion is expected to continue until the system dissipates. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 16.2N 139.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 30/0600Z 16.2N 141.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 30/1800Z 16.1N 143.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 31/0600Z 15.9N 146.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Gilma Graphics
2018-07-29 22:51:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Jul 2018 20:51:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Jul 2018 21:25:09 GMT
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